Ecosystem Collapse – Threat to UK

National Security Assessment

A sober report on the risks to national security posed by global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse has after , FoI request lodged by the Green Alliance, been published, although the  The Times has reported that it had been significantly “abridged”.  The national security assessment was due to be published in October 20025 but was mysteriously delayed as it it was thought to be too negative and also would highlight where the government had failed to act.

See Report Here 

The report is believed to have been compiled by the joint intelligence committee (on which the heads of MI5, MI6 and GCHQ sit).

The report has seven key judgements.

1. Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.

2. Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources.

3. Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security.

4. Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse.

5. There is a realistic possibility that some ecosystems (such as coral reefs in South East Asia and boreal forests) start to collapse from 2030, and others (rainforests and mangroves) start to collapse from 2050. Low

6. All countries are exposed to the risks of ecosystem collapse within and beyond their borders.

7. Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food.

It echoes warnings made for many years that the  “ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair).”  This collapse is a threat to “UK national security and prosperity”. The repost states that  “the world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse.”

Impacts could include geopolitical and economic instability, increased conflict and increasing competition for resources. The report warns that “It is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food.” and also warns that “conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water resources”.

The Office of Environmental Protection

Additionally, there has been a recent report from the Ofiice of Environmental Protection (OEP) that reveals that seven out of ten Environment Act 2021 targets are unlikely to be met by the 2030 deadline. The OEP was established post-Brexit to hold the UK government accountable under the new act, as the EU previously enforced standards with sanctions. Of the remaining targets—clean air, reducing environmental hazards, and enhancing nature's beauty—progress is only partial. The biodiversity goal, aimed at stopping species decline, is almost certain to be missed, with many important species still decreasing in number. New legislation, such as the planning and infrastructure bill, could further threaten protected nature sites. Additionally, the report highlights increased risks from environmental hazards like flooding and wildfires, noting a rise in properties at risk and a deterioration of protective assets.